The economic crisis is not such a terrible phenomenon, the economies of countries, especially financially developed ones, come out of crises refreshed, change their technological structure, become more productive and a new phase of the economic cycle begins, experts explain.
Georgy Ostapkovich, director of the Center for Market Research at the Higher School of Economics, talked about this phenomenon in an interview with Izvestia, commenting on reports of a serious crisis in the US in the coming months.
Earlier in the day, British billionaire investor Jeremy Grantham said that the US stock market is now experiencing a “mad” bubble, more serious than before the Great Depression in the 20th century.
The investor said that the upcoming sharp drop in the market is indicated by the growing popularity of so-called meme shares and cryptocurrencies, which speaks of extreme confidence in the financial markets. He also predicted that the S&P 500 stock index would fall more than 10% in the coming months.
Ostapkovich recalled how US economist Nouriel Roubini also predicted the 2008 economic crisis. However, according to the expert, Roubini constantly predicted crises for three years in a row and finally “hit the mark only in 2018”, after which “everyone began to say that this economist predicted the crisis.”
According to the director of the Center for Business Studies at the Higher School of Economics, any market economy develops in four phases: growth, boom, recession, recession (or crisis).
He recalled the statement by the Central Bank that the financial crisis will come in 2022-2023, stressing that this is “quite likely.” The specialist noted that the average phase of the economic cycle is 10-12 years and the next crisis may occur just in 2022, 2023, or 2024.
“The fact that there will be a financial crisis is not necessary to go to a fortune-teller. But when he will be, no one knows. Not a single person in the world has foreseen this yet, ”he stressed.
Ostapkovich recalled that the Russian economy after the shock in 2009 fell by 7.8%, this was one of the largest falls among the G20 countries because the Russian Federation has a very high resource orientation and not a diversified economy.
However, according to him, the Russian Federation “calmly came out” of this crisis and by 2014 there was a normal growth rate of the country’s economy, in the region of 3-4%.