The National Rating Agency (NRA) has prepared a baseline forecast, according to which the Russian economy will grow by 2-2.5% this year, Russian media informed.
Moreover, as stated by the general director of the NRA Alina Rozentsvet, this forecast includes the realization of the risks of the third wave of coronavirus this summer.
However, there is also a pessimistic forecast. If the third wave of summer restrictions is followed by tougher autumn ones, the country’s economy is expected to grow by only 0.5-1.5%, the head of the NRA added.
“There are a lot of uncertainties, and this is not only coronavirus but also geopolitics,” RIA Novosti quotes Rozentsvet as saying.
At the beginning of July, the head of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, Maxim Reshetnikov announced that prices would begin to decline in Russia in August. Explaining the July rise in prices, Reshetnikov named three factors: the rapid decline in vegetable stocks from the previous poor harvest, the rise in prices for building materials and metals, and an increase in demand for tourism services.
In August, prices will begin to decline, mainly for food, when agricultural products of the new harvest begin to arrive on the shelves, Russian media add.
According to the Central Bank, currently the annual inflation is about 6%; it will return to the 4% target in the second half of 2022. This year, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation expects the growth of the domestic economy in the range of 3-4%.