Russia’s weekly inflation remained at 0.1% week-on-week February 10, with the daily inflation slowing to 0.01% after an acceleration over the first few days in February, state statistics agency Rosstat said, according to ProFinance.
Inflation is back in focus as it trends at record-low and below the Bank of Russia (CBR) signalled further monetary stimulus as soon as 1H20, and the newly appointed government ramped up spending already in January 2020.
As of February 10 accumulated inflation was 0.2% since the beginning of the month and 0.6% since the beginning of the year, Sberbank CIB estimated on February 13.
“If it remains at that level until the end of the month, monthly inflation would be 0.3-0.4% depending on rounding. Taking into account that prices rose 0.4% m/m in February 2019, the y/y figure would likely remain at 2.4%,” the bank calculated.
Sberbank CIB expects inflation to hit the bottom for the year in 1Q20, after, which it should gradually start to pick up and reach 3% y/y by year-end, still below the CBR target of 4%.
Last month, the Bank of Russia said consumer price inflation in January 2020 stood at 2.4% year-on-year, based on official estimate of 0.4% month-on-month inflation for the reporting month.
Inflation continued to moderate in January, down from 3% y/y seen in December 2019. Inflation trends at a record-low and below the regulator’s target rate of 4%. This month the bank cut the key interest rate for the sixth time in a row by a minimum step of 25bp from 6.25% to 6% at the policy board meeting on February 7.