Russia is expected to produce 120-130 million tons of grain in 2018, of which 45-50 million tons will be available for exports in the 2018/19 season due to begin in July, the IKAR agriculture consultancy said on Friday.
The preliminary estimate is that Russia’s wheat crop may come at 73-82 million tons, of which 32-36 million tons could be exported in 2018/19, IKAR told a conference, according to Reuters.
Its estimate for 2018 grain crop is preliminary and is significantly higher than an estimate of 106 million tones provided by the Agriculture Ministry this week.
“We do not believe in this estimate at all,” IKAR’s Dmitry Rylko said regarding the ministry’s forecast.
Russia, one of the world’s largest grain exporters, harvested a record grain crop of 135 million tons in 2017.
Meanwhile, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) said in its latest forecasts it expected wheat and maize inventory levels to achieve a record high in the 2017-18 marketing season.
“Global markets of all major cereals remain well balanced, supported by record inventory levels,” FAO’s new Cereal Supply and Demand Brief says.
The report expects world cereal supplies to reach nearly 3.331 billion tons.
The FAO’s estimate for global cereal production in 2017 is currently at a record high of 2.640 billion tons, 1.3% above the 2016 estimate. The estimate has been raised by 13.5 million tons since December, marking a second consecutive substantial upward revision.
The rise in estimate is due to an expected increase in grain output in several areas around the globe.
The FAO is estimating an increased maize output from China, Mexico and the E.U., as well as increased output of wheat due to larger harvests in Canada and Russia. Rice production is anticipated to rise in China.