The growth of the Russian gross domestic product will accelerate sharply in July-September, experts from the biggest bank in Russia, Sberbank said. The decline in GDP in the first quarter slowed to 1.3% compared to the same period last year, according to Russia’s Central Bank.
The Center for Macroeconomic Research of Sberbank predicts a sharp increase in GDP in the second quarter – 9% after the decline in January-March. This is the most optimistic forecast according to the experts. In the second quarter, GDP growth will reach 6.7%, and after a robust recovery in July-September, the Russian economy will eventually slow down, the analysis showed.
The GDP growth rate has reached the level of 2019, but the government intends to increase economic growth, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said on May 12, speaking in the State Duma during an annual report. The Central Bank expects Russia’s GDP to grow by 4% in 2021.
The European Commission (EC) in May improved its forecast for Russia’s GDP growth: from 2% to 2.7% in 2021 and from 1.9% to 2.3% next year.
At the end of March, the World Bank improved its estimates of Russia’s economic growth – from 2.6% to 2.9% in 2021, while the estimate for 2022 was improved from 3.0% to 3.2%.
The Ministry of Economic Development believes that in 2021 the GDP of the Russian Federation will grow by 2.9%, but the indicator will depend on the implementation of the National Economic Development Plan and the speed of COVID-19 vaccination.