Russia’s Outlook Scenarios for 2021-2023 Suggest No Second Wave of Coronavirus

The base case and conservative scenarios of the outlook of Russia’s social and economic development for 2021-2023 suggest no second wave of the coronavirus, though it remains the key risk for macroeconomic parameters, according to the revised outlook provided by the Economic Development Ministry, TASS writes.

“The base case and conservative scenarios suggest no second wave of the novel coronavirus infection, though it remains the key risk source for the outlook’s parameters,” according to the document.

The projected growth trajectory by the end of 2020 and in 2021 is still highly uncertain, the ministry noted.

The base case option depicts the most probable scenario of Russia’s economic development, while the conservative scenario is based on the assumption that the sanitary and epidemiological situation in the world will become less favorable, of a protracted recovery of the global economy and structural slowdown of its growth rates in the mid-term due to the pandemic.

“The outlook for 2021-2023 is based on the necessity to reach national development targets through 2030, with measures and instruments for their achievement to be specified as part of the common plan for reaching national development targets of the Russian Federation through 2024 and the planned period through 2030,” the ministry added.

The base case scenario of the outlook envisions Russia’s GDP contraction by 3.9% in 2020, growth by 3.3% in 2021, 3.4% in 2022, and by 3% in 2023. The conservative scenario of the macroeconomic outlook suggests GDP growth by 2.7% in 2021, 2.9% in 2022 with further stabilization at around 2.5%.