RGS Raises Forecast for Grain Harvest in Russia for 2021

The Russian Grain Union (RGS) has raised its forecast for grain harvest in Russia this year from 118 million to 119.5 million tons, said Elena Tyurina, head of the RZS analytical department.

“The main factor for the increase is the narrowing of the gap in yields compared to last year. If on September 1, the yield was 12% lower, then on September 15, the gap narrowed to 9.6%,” Tyurina said in an interview with Interfax.

The forecast for wheat harvest increased from 76 million to 78-78.5 million tons. “Here, too, the yield gap narrowed by September 15 to 7.7% from 11% at the beginning of the month,” Tyurina emphasized.

“If earlier we estimated the export potential for wheat in the current agricultural year (July 2021 – June 2022) at 34 million tons, then I think we will reach 35.5-36 million tons,” Tyurina explained.

The RZS raised its forecast as grain harvest is moving to Siberian regions, where more favorable conditions for the harvest have developed, “which has led to a narrowing of the yield gap,” Tyurina concluded.