U.S. shale energy production is on course to overtake the output of Russia’s entire oil and gas sector by 2025, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its influential annual review of the global energy market, The Moscow Times reports.
The intergovernmental organization predicted falling dominance of Russia and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and continued to raise alarms that governments are not doing enough to avert a climate disaster.
“Shale output from the United States is set to stay higher for longer than previously projected, reshaping global markets, trade flows and security,” the IEA stated.
If governments adopt all the energy policies they have committed to, “the United States [will] account for 85% of the increase in global oil production to 2030, and for 30% of the increase in gas. By 2025, total U.S. shale output (oil and gas) overtakes total oil and gas production from Russia.”
Another report by energy giant BP found that as a result of the last decade’s shale boom in the U.S., the country has already become the world’s largest energy producer. Last year, the U.S. experienced the largest growth in natural gas production “seen by any country in history”.
The growth of U.S. output will also knock the dominance of Russia and the Middle East in the global energy mix. The IEA predicted the share of energy produced by Russia and OPEC will drop to 47% in 2030, down from 55% in the mid-2000s.
Russia currently pumps out around 11 million barrels of oil a day, accounting for 11% of world output. A deal struck earlier this year between Russia and the OPEC limits energy production by Russia and the largest OPEC producers such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq in a bid to stabilze prices.