The price of oil in September will remain low, perhaps even with a slight decrease from the current levels below $40 per barrel, experts told TASS on Friday. In October, the downward trend is likely to be interrupted and a gradual growth will begin, which will accelerate in November and December, they said.
“There will not be a serious decline in the oil price in September – it is unlikely to fall closer to $ 35 per barrel. Now there is a revision, according to the forecast, for practically all agencies with a drawdown (oil prices) in September and October. In November, we will enter a further growth trend,” said Andrei Polishchuk, an analyst at Raiffeisen Bank. He also added that as early as Q4 2020, the price of oil may rise to $ 47 per barrel.
The research director of VYGON Consulting Maria Belova does not see any grounds for a further decrease in oil prices in the current conditions. She believes that in today’s conditions the equilibrium oil price is in the range of $40-42 per barrel. The head of the analytical department of AMarkets Artem Deev added that by the end of 2020 the average oil price will be from $40 to $50 per barrel, but it will not exceed this level.
Dmitry Marinchenko, director of the Fitch group for natural resources and commodities, is less optimistic: he estimates that the oil price will be higher than the current one, but on average in 2020 it will be about $41 per barrel, and next year it will rise to $45, but on condition that the general trend towards opening up the world economy will continue.
