Russia’s Crude Production Projected to Recover to Record Level Only in 2023

Production of oil and gas condensate in Russia is projected at 507.4 mln tonnes in 2020, a 9.5% decrease compared with 2019, whereas gas output is expected to drop by 6.4% to 690.8 bln cubic meters, according to the country’s social and economic development for 2021 and the planned period of 2022 and 2023 presented by the Economic Development Ministry, TASS reported.

In 2019, Russia’s oil production stayed at a record level of 560.8 mln tonnes, the ministry said. However, Russia’s production will remain under the OPEC+ limitations through 2023. Its recovery to the previous maximum (560 mln tonnes) is probable in 2023, according to the ministry. Meanwhile, oil export will decrease to 225 mln tonnes, or by 16.4% year-on-year. In 2023, oil export is expected to rise to 266.2 mln tonnes due to development of primary crude oil processing and increase in refining depth.

Gas output is projected at the level of 690.8 bln cubic meters (-6.4%) considering the current dynamics and the state of global economy in 2020, whereas gas consumption on the domestic market will decline to 473.7 bln cubic meters (-0.9%). In the mid-term the Economic Development Ministry expects gas production to rise, reaching 795.6 bln cubic meters in 2023 (up by 3.3% year-on-year and by 7.7% compared with 2019).

Russia’s oil export to non-CIS countries will increase to 242.2 mln tonnes by 2023 mainly due to growth of supplies to Asian-Pacific states, according to the ministry’s outlook. Export to CIS countries will remain at 24 mln tonnes in 2021-2023.

In 2019, Russia’s explored reserves amounted to 6.2% of the total global reserves, which makes it the world’s sixth-biggest country in terms of that indicator.