U.S. to Overtake Russia in Oil Exports by 2024: IEA

The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) said in its latest five-year forecast that the United States will soon be challenging to be the biggest oil exporter in the world thanks to the “remarkable strength” of its shale industry, according to the Financial Post.

By the end of the 2024, oil exports from the U.S. will overtake Russia and “close in” on Saudi Arabia, the IEA said.

FatihBirol, the IEA’s executive director, said the U.S. would drive global oil supply growth, triggering a rapid transformation of world oil markets, adding that he could not foresee a peak in oil demand over the period, despite an “easing” of demand.

“The second wave of the US shale revolution is coming,” Birol said, unveiling the “Oil 2019” report at the CERAWeek by IHS Market forum in Houston, Texas.

“It will see the US account for 70 percent of the rise in global oil production and some 75 percent of the expansion in liquified natural gas (LNG) trade over the next five years. This will shake up international oil and gas trade flows, with profound implications for the geopolitics of energy,” he added.

The U.S. is currently in third position among the world’s oil exporters, behind Russia and Saudi Arabia, the biggest. When the US closes in on the Kingdom, it will bring “greater diversity of supply,” the IEA report said.

“While global oil demand growth is set to ease, in particular as China slows down, it still increases at an annual average of 1.2 million barrels per day to 2024,” according to the “Oil 2019” report. “Still, the IEA continues to see no peak in oil demand, as petrochemicals and jet fuel remain the key drivers of growth, particularly in the U.S. and Asia, more than offsetting a slowdown in gasoline due to efficiency gains and electric cars.”